Modeling Recovery: Optimizing the Impact of Opioid Settlement Funds
Opioid addiction has become one of the greatest challenges impacting people and communities across the U.S. The impacts are wide-reaching, with direct harm to individuals and cascading effects on families and the wider community. Some impacts are more visible and clearly linked — such as overdoses, ongoing substance use, and direct crime. Broader impacts such as housing impacts, more widespread crime, lost productivity, and community health are harder to trace but are deeply harmful.
Opioids have been a challenge for centuries, but in recent decades a combination of new formulations, financial incentives, and other factors greatly compounded the problem. Sage conducted detailed analysis of the causal factors driving impacts in support of legal disputes. Through a series of settlement agreements, organizations involved agreed to pay tens of billions of dollars to fund state and local government recovery efforts.
The settlements are a tremendous opportunity but deciding how to make best use of the funds is very difficult. Opioid abuse has many causes, and sustained recovery is highly challenging for both individuals and communities. The most effective approach varies from person to person and region to region. Differences make some individuals and communities more vulnerable to impacts, they affect the relative importance, availability, and effectiveness of different types of programs, and they mean that the most effective ways to deliver different types of programs also vary.
To help put funds to best use, Sage has extended its models of causes of the Opioid epidemic to also include recovery options. By tailoring these models to different regions and populations, we help decision-makers analyze short and long-term impacts of different options and determine the best portfolio of programs to fund. For example, anti-overdosing medications are helpful but have very different impacts over time than recovery programs and educational programs. We help determine what mix is best for each community, what can be sustained with available funds, and assess the expected benefits over time.
Holistic Modeling
Sage has developed a large modeling system capturing key factors and interconnections. A high-level view showing the scope and factors covered is shown below:
We conduct tailored analysis of how different programs impact populations over time to prioritize the best use of available funds to meet priorities set by regional leaders.
