The demand for nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers from Combatant commanders exceeds the number of ships available. The problem is made even worse by maintenance delays with frequent schedule overruns on maintenance in the Naval Shipyards. The Navy needed a more accurate forecast of maintenance costs and schedules so that they could optimize use of shipyard resources. They also needed to be able to rapidly assess the full cross-shipyard implications of unexpected issues and test and prioritize the most effective corrective courses of action. A more accurate shipyard dynamic simulation or “digital twin” would prove crucial to giving Navy leaders the insights they needed.
For decades, Sage has invested to develop a Program Management Modeling System which it used to create shipyard digital twins for both government and industry programs. These dynamic simulation models capture how productivity and quality are impacted by the conditions in which work is planned and executed. Over time we have refined the models to improve accuracy and we calibrate them to historical performance including the major drivers of work accomplishment. These digital twins provide cost and schedule forecasts for individual projects in a shipyard’s portfolio that have proven to be much more accurate than initial shipyard projections. The models can rapidly assess changes such as added work scope, different start times and modified schedules on individual projects. The overall portfolio can also be rapidly assessed while assessing variable shipyard conditions and testing alternative actions to improve.
The Naval Shipyard digital twin allows managers to understand the dynamics of their programs and how different strategies and conditions affect performance. Decision makers can rapidly evaluate alternative shipyard loading plans and schedules and can readily evaluate the cross-program impacts of new work, priority changes and emergent repairs. Options to improve both cost and schedule performance can be systematically assessed. The outcomes of decisions can be assessed including straight time, overtime, direct production labor, support labor and project schedules, to help decision-makers prioritize.